Due diligence

Commercial due diligence

Challenge the target's market, customer, competitor and growth assumptions so the investment case reflects evidence about demand, positioning and execution risk.

Quick answer

Commercial due diligence, or CDD, is an objective, transaction-focused assessment of a business's market and commercial position. It commonly tests market size and growth, customer needs and retention, competitive dynamics, pricing, routes to market, product or service differentiation, historical commercial performance and the assumptions behind management's business plan. Its findings inform investment appraisal, valuation, deal terms and value-creation priorities.

Use the worked example

Meaning and transaction use

ICAEW describes CDD as an objective enquiry that critiques commercial matters, including a target's business plan and financial projections, using evidence about the market, competitors, customers, business model and performance. [S1]

ICAEW identifies commercial risks, business-plan assumptions, the equity story and valuation insight as transaction uses of CDD. [S1]

PwC describes market attractiveness, competitive positioning, customer satisfaction and revenue-forecast challenge as core areas of commercial diligence. [S2]

Worked example

Illustrative forecast challenge only. Assume current annual revenue of 80.0 million, 10.0% expected churn, 8.0 million of signed new revenue, 3.0 million of evidenced expansion and a 4.0 million qualified pipeline assigned an illustrative 30.0% probability. Management forecasts 92.0 million.

Scroll the table horizontally to view all columns.

MeasureCalculationResult
Retained base revenue80.0 x (1 - 10.0%)72.0m
Probability-weighted pipeline4.0 x 30.0%1.2m
Illustrative supported revenue72.0 + 8.0 + 3.0 + 1.284.2m
Gap to management forecast92.0 - 84.27.8m
Forecast support ratio84.2 / 92.091.5%
Illustrative top-five concentration36.0 / 80.045.0%

The illustrative evidence supports 84.2 million of revenue, 7.8 million below management's forecast. The 30.0% pipeline probability and all other assumptions require validation; the support ratio does not predict actual revenue or investment returns.

Proposed transaction review process

Define the investment questions

Set the deal hypothesis, valuation drivers, key risks, decision thresholds, scope and required reliance.

Build the market and competitor view

Size relevant segments, test growth drivers, map competitors and assess regulation, technology and substitution risks.

Test customer and commercial evidence

Analyse retention, concentration, pricing, cohorts, pipeline and customer feedback using consistent populations and dates.

Challenge the plan

Rebuild key forecast drivers, quantify supported ranges and translate findings into valuation, terms and value-creation actions.

Evidence checklist

Market evidence

Segment definitions, independent data, demand drivers, regulation, technology and source-date reconciliation.

Customer evidence

Revenue cohorts, retention, concentration, contracts, usage, pricing, surveys and authorised interviews.

Competitive evidence

Competitor offerings, capacity, pricing, routes to market, win-loss data and differentiated capabilities.

Business-plan evidence

Historical performance, sales funnel, signed backlog, conversion rates, delivery capacity and management assumptions.

Decision framework

SituationProposed action
Market definitions are inconsistentReconcile products, geographies, customers and periods before relying on size or share estimates.
Customer evidence contradicts the planRevise the relevant retention, pricing or growth assumptions and test valuation sensitivity.
Pipeline quality is unverifiedSeparate contracted, qualified and early-stage opportunities and apply evidence-based conversion assumptions.
A growth initiative lacks capabilitiesIdentify the investment, people, time and execution dependencies in the value-creation plan.

Common errors to check

  • Using broad industry growth as the target's addressable segment growth without reconciliation.
  • Treating management pipeline as contracted revenue.
  • Relying on a small or biased customer sample without stating the limitation.
  • Reporting market findings without tracing their effect on the forecast, valuation or transaction decision.

Challenge the commercial investment case

Bring the investment thesis, market model, customer data, competitor evidence, pipeline and management forecast to a commercial diligence review. Quantify the supported case, evidence gaps and value-creation dependencies before the decision point.

Discuss the transaction

Primary references and editorial scope

  1. ICAEW Corporate Finance Faculty, Commercial due diligence
    CDD definition, evidence areas and transaction uses. Reference checked 17 September 2026.
  2. PwC Canada, Deals strategy and commercial diligence
    Market, competitor, customer and revenue-forecast assessment in commercial diligence. Reference checked 17 September 2026.
Editorial qualification

General transaction education. Figures and pipeline probabilities are hypothetical. The scope, procedures, source access and reliance depend on the engagement, market, transaction and applicable confidentiality, privacy, legal and regulatory requirements.

General business information. Obtain advice appropriate to the legal, tax, accounting and financing facts. No offer, lender commitment or transaction outcome is represented. All worked examples use expressly assumed figures. Editorial draft date: 17 September 2026.

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